Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis tries to determine the intrinsic value of an asset by looking at the underlying drivers — for currencies, that's interest rates, inflation, employment data, central bank policy and political stability. For crypto, it's network usage, developer activity, on-chain volume, regulatory developments, and protocol-level events like halvings.

The thesis is simple: when an asset trades far below or above its fundamental value, the market eventually corrects. The challenge is that "eventually" can mean a very long time — long enough to bankrupt you if you're under-capitalized.

Key fundamental data for traders

  • Macro: CPI, PPI, NFP, GDP, FOMC and ECB rate decisions.
  • On-chain (crypto): active addresses, transaction count, exchange inflows/outflows, stablecoin supply.
  • Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index, futures funding rates, options skew.
  • Flows: ETF creations/redemptions, miner balances, whale wallet movements.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis ignores fundamentals and studies the price chart itself. The premise: all known information is already reflected in the price, and human behavior creates recurring patterns. Whether or not you believe the premise, the patterns work because enough other traders believe in them — making them self-fulfilling.

The core toolkit

  • Trend lines & channels — the simplest and often the most useful tools.
  • Support & resistance — price levels where buyers or sellers historically clustered.
  • Moving averages — smooth out noise, identify trend direction.
  • Momentum indicators — RSI, MACD, Stochastic.
  • Volume profile — where the bulk of activity occurred at each price level.
  • Candlestick patterns — engulfing, pin bars, doji, etc., for short-term entry timing.

Combining both

The strongest setups occur when both schools align. Example: the macro picture suggests dollar weakness (fundamental bias = short DXY), and EUR/USD has just broken multi-month resistance on rising volume (technical confirmation). That's a higher-conviction trade than either signal alone.

Time-frame matters. Fundamentals drive the multi-week and multi-month picture. Technicals dominate the intraday and weekly picture. Don't use macro analysis to time scalp trades — and don't use 5-minute candles to size a swing position.

Reading our daily reports

The TradersNations research team publishes a daily market briefing that combines both views: a one-page macro summary, a watchlist of crypto setups, and key levels for the major FX pairs. Premium plan members get it in their inbox every morning before the European open.

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